Trump Signals Iran War Near End, Markets Rally

US President Donald Trump suggested that the ongoing conflict with Iran may soon come to an end, sparking optimism across global financial markets and stabilizing energy prices.

According to recent statements, peace talks could resume within days. Trump hinted that extending the current ceasefire might not be necessary, suggesting that meaningful progress could be imminent. He described the situation as being “close to over,” reinforcing expectations of a near-term resolution.

This shift in tone from Washington has significantly improved investor sentiment. Major stock indices have rebounded, recovering losses recorded since the conflict began earlier this year. The S&P 500 is now approaching previous record highs, while Asian markets have also regained stability.

Oil Markets and Strategic Tensions

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains critical. This passage is responsible for transporting a significant portion of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

While the US continues to enforce a naval blockade to restrict Iranian exports, there are indications that Tehran may be avoiding further escalation to preserve diplomatic momentum. Some oil tankers have already altered routes due to military presence in the region, although limited traffic has resumed.

Oil prices, which had previously surged due to supply fears, have stabilized below the $100 per barrel threshold. However, fuel costs for consumers—especially gasoline and diesel remain at historically high seasonal levels.

Ongoing Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks

Despite growing optimism, several critical issues remain unresolved. These include the future of Iran’s nuclear program and disagreements over uranium enrichment policies. Israel continues to push for strict measures, while the US appears cautious about imposing long-term constraints that could hinder negotiations.

The conflict has already caused significant damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf region, disrupting global supply chains and raising concerns about inflation. According to the International Energy Agency, rising fuel costs are beginning to impact demand, potentially leading to the first annual decline in oil consumption since 2020.

At the same time, military operations and geopolitical tensions persist in parallel regions, particularly involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, highlighting that broader regional instability is far from resolved.

What Comes Next

While negotiations appear to be gaining traction, uncertainty remains over whether a comprehensive agreement will be reached. Trump emphasized that a “major deal” is preferable, suggesting the US is aiming for a long-term resolution rather than a temporary fix.

Markets are currently pricing in a positive outcome, but the situation remains highly sensitive to political and military developments. Any disruption in negotiations or escalation in the region could quickly reverse the current momentum.